COVID-19 projected outcomes to April 24

Posted on April 21, 2020

This rapid response report provides updated projections estimating the trajectory COVID-19 could follow in New Brunswick (NB) if the province has outcomes similar to those of countries and provinces that have to date contained infections relatively successfully.

Studying the experiences of the different locations further along in the infection outbreak helps inform how the disease could continue to progress in NB. Variables considered include COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, critical care cases, and cases requiring mechanical ventilation. The regions considered in the most recent projection estimates include South Korea, Germany, Australia, Denmark, and British Columbia (BC) as well as Nova Scotia (NS) as our Maritime neighbor.

As background to our projections and to motivate our choice of comparison group of countries, we present data on a range of measures for NB and select countries, as well as the other Canadian provinces. Those measures include rates of infection, testing, critical care, mortality, and the number of daily new cases since preventive measures were first implemented.

We examine how NB compares to South Korea, Germany, Denmark, Australia, Canada as a whole, and the individual Canadian provinces. We also include Iceland, as it was one of the first countries to conduct testing across a random sample of its entire population.

Our key conclusion is that NB’s case levels will remain relatively low and within the health system’s capacity to provide necessary treatment to those who need it. Social distancing and related measures, tracking and quarantining of affected individuals, and NB’s population density have resulted in an incidence rate that is predicted to remain among the lowest in Canada.