How many people will NB have in 2036?

Author: Mara Mallory

 Posted on Nov 5, 2019

evidence based policy population research

In 2017, we published one of the first in-depth examinations of how New Brunswick’s population is expected to change over the coming decades, both in terms of geographic distribution and numbers.

Principal researcher Dr. Paul Peters, now at Carleton University, was a researcher with the New Brunswick Institute for Data, Research and Training at the University of New Brunswick when he and the NB-IRDT team developed a scenario-based forecasting model to try to predict what New Brunswick’s population distribution will look like in 2036 under different rates of fertility, mortality, and migration. Each scenario is based on observed rates within the population, either over the long-term or in the most recent periods.

The research team looked at population forecasts by county and by health region, forecasting how each would perform under low, medium, and high growth conditions.

In 2018, the NB-IRDT team ran the numbers again, this time using the most recent 2016 Census data. While the updated forecasting largely echoed the results from the model using the 2011 Census data, there were some notable differences in the 2018 report.

Moncton and Fredericton lead the province in predicted growth numbers

Both the 2017 and 2018 forecast models show that Fredericton and Moncton are the only regions of the province expected to experience population growth under all scenarios. In the latest iteration, low growth conditions could see the Fredericton region (York County) grow by a modest 4,600 people while the Moncton area (Westmoreland County) could see growth of 10,400.

In the highest growth scenario (high fertility, low mortality, high immigration, and low out-migration), the Moncton and Fredericton areas could see growth approximately 35,000 and 19,000 respectively.

Saint John’s population growth predictions have been downgraded

The two forecasts differ when it comes to the City of Saint John (Saint John County). In the 2017 report, Saint John County was predicted to see population growth of 877 in the highest growth scenario but population decline in all other scenarios. Neighbouring Kings County (with the towns of Rothesay and Quispamsis) showed the potential for growth ranging from 1600 to 6600 in all scenarios.

In the 2018 report using the latest census data, the model forecasts population decline for Saint John under every growth scenario and more modest growth predictions and some population decline scenarios for Kings County (Rothesay and Quispamsis).

For all other counties in New Brunswick, both reports forecast population decline over the 20-year forecast period, with Restigouche County predicted to experience the highest percentage population decline in the 2018 report (between 17-25%).

Different scenarios show the impact of different policy options

By comparing the different scenarios against one another, the NB-IRDT research team can offer a prediction of the impact of certain policy decisions on population growth. For example, efforts to stop population loss from interprovincial migration and enabling higher rates of immigration increases the population of province by nearly 25,000 by 2036.

These population forecasts are based on past trends. Lots can change in a short time and when it comes to predicting populations of small areas, just a few people can make a significant difference to forecast numbers.

Download the reports:

Small-Area Population Forecasts for New Brunswick with 2016 Census Data- Cohort Component (2018)

Small-Area Population Forecasts for New Brunswick with 2016 Census Data- Simplified Model (2018)

Small area population forecasts for New Brunswick (2017)

New Brunswick Population Snapshot (2017)

About the NB-IRDT

The New Brunswick Institute for Data, Research, and Training is a data research institute and laboratory headquartered at the University of New Brunswick in Fredericton, New Brunswick. NB-IRDT is the data steward for New Brunswick’s health and administrative data and offers research, advisory, and training services for organizations and institutions interested in rich, multi-faceted population research data. Researchers can apply to access NB-IRDT platform data at one of three secure and restricted-access labs: UNB-Fredericton, University of Moncton, and UNB-Saint John.

Media inquiries: Mara Mallory